With the U.S. men's win over South Sudan on Wednesday, the Olympic men's basketball competition has officially completed two of three rounds of group play. Team USA has been about as good as advertised, clearly the favorites to take home a historic fifth straight gold medal. But as each team has two games under its belt, this feels like a good time to take stock of what we've learned so far — and figure out which team is best positioned to threaten the U.S.'s spot at the top. Below is our ranking of the five biggest threats to the Americans in Paris.
Who can challenge the U.S. men's basketball team for gold?
1. Canada
Canada has the deepest pool of talent outside of the U.S., with NBA players occupying 10 of 12 roster spots. And, some spotty stretches in the opener against Greece notwithstanding, the Canadians have mostly looked the part of gold-medal contenders, fending off a ferocious charge from Giannis Antetokounmpo and pulling away from a feisty Australia team to take control of Group A.
RJ Barrett looks as decisive and confident as ever, Dillon Brooks' streaky shot appears locked in and, perhaps most terrifyingly of all, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't even fully locked in yet. Canada's lack of size is still something of an issue, and we'll see how they might handle the duo of Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis (not to mention Joel Embiid if he ever gets going). But in a field without a clear second favorite, this squad stands out for its depth, shot creation and perimeter defense. And with SGA at the head of the snake, they believe that they belong in the same conversation with the U.S. — they did beat them for bronze at last year's World Cup, after all.
2. Germany
Perhaps this is a controversial choice. But don't forget that it was Germany who won the World Cup last summer, and the fact is that after two games, it has simply been more impressive than either France or Serbia.
Sure, the competition hasn't been the stiffest with wins over Brazil and Japan, and we'll learn a lot more about where this team stands when it squares off with France for Group B supremacy on Friday. But Dennis Schroder is a menace with the ball in his hands, the true lead guard and offensive engine that France lacks. And with Franz Wagner on the wing, Daniel Theis bullying people down low and Andreas Obst flying around screens like JJ Redick, there's not a lot that this team lacks.
They have experience, size and shooting at all five spots on the floor, and they're incredibly tough, all of which allow them to play above their relative lack of starpower. In a tournament where just about everyone below the U.S. has its flaws, Germany feels awfully sturdy.
3. France
Look, any team that features Victor Wembanyama can only fall so far.
That said, anyone who watched France's first two group-play games is painfully aware of its limitations: Namely, Les Bleus can have an awfully hard time scoring. It's a flaw that's built into this roster, one that's lacking the sort of organizing lead guard that other medal contenders have. Wemby is an alien, but he's not that sort of on-ball creator, and spacing can get very tight when he and Rudy Gobert share the floor together.
Of course, France's defense could win them this tournament all by itself, and it'll have a raucous home-court advantage cheering it on. I just have a hard time seeing a team that's this offensively challenged beating the U.S., especially considering that Team USA's main weakness (point-of-attack defense) is one that France isn't really designed to exploit.
4. Australia
Scoff all you want, but this is the reigning bronze medalist from Tokyo, and Patty Mills and the gang always find a way to play up on the international stage. And now the Dunkaroos have a new leader: Josh Giddey, fully unleashed as a point-forward and flirting with triple-doubles seemingly every game.
If Giddey's 3-point shot is here to stay, he's a legitimate No. 1 option in this tournament, and everything else slides into place: Mills roving off the ball, Jock Landale hoovering up offensive rebounds on the interior, Dyson Daniels the prototypical 3-and-D wing. The Aussies might not boast the NBA depth of the teams around them, but they're going to be a very tough out, and I think they'd play the U.S. tougher than the last team on this list.
5. Serbia
You can never count out a team with Nikola Jokic on it, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the U.S. has routed Serbia both in a pre-Paris exhibition and in its Olympic opener. This Serbian roster simply doesn't have the athleticism to keep up with Team USA, and the extremely switchable U.S. lineups at Steve Kerr's disposal are as well-suited to neutralizing Jokic's game as you can ask for.