A rollicking group stage has come and gone, and now the bracket is set: It's knockout time in the men's basketball tournament at the Paris Olympics. 

The field is the deepest it's ever been. The vibes at Stade Pierre-Mauroy so far? Immaculate. But who will be left standing on the podium at the end in a single-elimination bracket where anything can happen? We've been watching every second of group play, and we're here to tell you which teams have the best shot.

8. Brazil

Credit to Brazil for finding its way to the knockout rounds, but that was mostly to do with Bruno Caboclo going thermonuclear enough against Japan to sneak through on point differential. Caboclo, a first-round pick of the Toronto Raptors once upon a time, has been a fun side plot in these Games, but overall the Brazilians don't have the depth or athleticism to hang with the U.S. in their quarterfinal matchup.

7. Greece

It's a sign of just how deep this field is that the team with one of the four or five best players on planet Earth finds itself all the way down here. Giannis Antetokounmpo's supporting cast finally gave him a bit of help in Greece's lone Group A win against Australia, but overall Thomas Walkup, Nick Calathes and Co. simply haven't been consistent enough to think that Greece is capable of making a real run — much less surviving a quarterfinal showdown with Germany.

6. Serbia

See above re: just how deep the field is this year. Nikola Jokic is Nikola Jokic, and it's an encouraging sign that Bogdan Bogdanovic finally got loose in the win-or-go-home victory over South Sudan. But there's a bit of the Greece problem happening here: Outside of its two NBA talents — Nikola Jovic isn't quite all the way back from his foot injury, which hurts — there's a decided lack of oomph on this roster. Serbia has loads of experience and can muck things up with the best of them, and there's always a chance that Jokic creates enough efficient offense all by himself to win a game or two (or three). But there are fewer paths to a deep run here than with the teams ahead of them.

5. France

Perhaps this is a hot take, but I remain concerned about the shape of France's roster after three group games. Having a trustworthy lead guard goes a long, long way in tournament basketball, and the closest France comes is Evan Fournier and Frank Ntilikina (that sound you just heard was every New York Knicks fan heaving a collective sigh). Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert are elite defensive anchors, and the French have been as-advertised on that end of the court. The other end, however, has been much more of a problem, one that manifested itself in a closer-than-it-should've-been win over Japan and a dispiriting blowout loss to Germany. France is going to see another elite shotmaker in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the quarterfinals, and I'm not sure it has the horses to keep up.

4. Australia

Perhaps this is also a hot take, or a case of too much deference being given to this team's international track record. But it did take bronze back in Tokyo, and Patty Mills is one of the Olympics' best storied crunch-time killers. If Josh Giddey's shot sticks around for a while, this team is solid just about everywhere, with Jock Landale outworking people down low and stoppers like Dyson Daniels and Dante Exum on the wing. As we saw in the loss to Greece, offense can be a concern when the shooting goes sideways. But the bet here is that Mills has one more signature moment in him in what is likely the soon-to-be 36-year-old's final Olympic run, and the Dunkaroos simply have fewer glaring weaknesses than France — plus an easier first-round match against Serbia.

3. Germany

Man, this is tough. Truth to be told, I flip-flopped Germany and Canada a few times; the Germans might not have the flashiest roster, but they're tough, experienced and bring shooting and skill at all five spots of the court, and FIBA Dennis Schroder is enough to break any defense. But it's also worth noting that the one big name Germany has faced so far in this tournament (France) is the one it's best suited to beating, and in the end the depth of the two teams ahead of them is what won out.

2. Canada

Canada's moment has finally arrived. This golden generation has been making noise for years now, even beating the U.S. for bronze at last year's World Cup, and now it has a chance to earn the first men's basketball gold in its country's history — and the first medal of any kind since a silver back in 1936. It still feels like this team hasn't quite reached top gear yet, fending off challenges from all three of Greece, Australia and Spain in group play. The lack of a true center is a bit of a concern as we get deeper into the tournament, and the playmaking when SGA sits remains a question mark. (Andrew Nembhard's return to playoff form against Spain to end group play was a very welcome sight.) But SGA is a stone-cold killer, RJ Barrett is his ideal running mate and this roster throws NBA bodies at you in waves. Canada deserves this ranking until proven otherwise.

1. USA

The king stays the king. The path to a fifth straight gold medal got a bit easier thanks to a very friendly draw, with Germany, Canada and France all on the other side of the bracket and just Brazil and the winner of Australia/Serbia standing between the U.S. and the final. And after a somewhat up-and-down pre-Paris tune-up series, this team has been largely dialed-in since starting the Games. Question marks remain — which Joel Embiid will show up? Is Anthony Edwards ready to be a lead guard for this team? — but when Team USA gets cranked up, there's no one in the world that can hang with them for 40 minutes.