SAINT-QUENTIN-EN-YVELINES, France – Handicapping the men’s Olympic tournament presents a unique challenge given the trend in professional golf to fixate on the stars, a move accelerated by the introduction of signature events on the PGA Tour. 

While the 60-man field here is top heavy – with eight of the game’s top 10 players in the world ranking, including No. 1 Scottie Scheffler – the nature of qualifying presents more variables than your run-of-the-mill Tour stop.

There’s also the Olympic nuance of medals; as Rory McIlroy explained four years ago in Tokyo, when he lost a playoff for the bronze, he’d never played so hard for a third-place finish.

The host course at Le Golf National also presents a twist to the normal analysis, with the bias at the 2018 Ryder Cup being ball-striking and short game, a trend that will likely be mitigated for the Olympic tournament without Thomas Bjorn, Europe’s captain in ’18, and Co. setting up the layout to heavily favor the home team.

With that list of variables in mind, here’s a breakdown of the Olympic men’s field.

Scheffler has established himself as his own category, and given his record this season (10 top-5 finishes and six victories in 16 starts), it seems likely he’ll be headed back to the United States with a medal. The only question is: What color?

Alongside the Masters champion will be Xander Schauffele with two major victories this year. That Schauffele is also the defending champion having won the gold medal three years ago in Tokyo also gives him status alongside Scheffler.

After that, the field lines up in a familiar way, with McIlroy leading the pack despite a wild few weeks that included a heartbreaking runner-up finish at last month’s U.S. Open and a dismal performance two weeks ago at Royal Troon.

For those keeping score, Jon Rahm enters this week’s event with the most momentum of any player not named Schauffele. The Spaniard posted his first top-10 finish in major this year at Royal Troon (T-7) and won for the first time as an individual at last week’s LIV Golf event in England.

Collin Morikawa may be the American team wildcard, having pieced together an impressive run with four top-5 finishes since his tie for fourth at the PGA Championship. Ludvig Åberg has been equally consistent, with his tie for fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open being the highlight of the summer. And Tommy Fleetwood has been solid this season and has won previously at Le Golf National (2017 French Open).

Shane Lowry of Northern Ireland would be an interesting pick, too, given his play at Royal Troon, where he finished sixth after leading through two rounds.

At the tail end of this category would be South Korea’s Tom Kim and Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama. Kim has lacked the consistency of the others in this group, but he followed a tie for fourth place at the RBC Canadian Open with a playoff loss at the Travelers Championship; and Matsuyama has been similarly unpredictable since his victory earlier this year at the Genesis Invitational.

The best example of Olympic parity came three years ago in Tokyo, when Rory Sabbatini, who was playing for Slovakia via South Africa, won the silver medal ranked 161st in the world. It’s the beauty of the Olympics that finishing third – normally an afterthought in professional golf – is an accomplishment worth celebrating.

Atop this list this year would be Robert MacIntyre, who has had a magical summer with victories at his own national open three weeks ago in Scotland to go along with his maiden Tour title at the Canadian Open.

France’s Matthieu Pavon is the sentimental favorite, and following his first career victory on the PGA Tour earlier this year at Torrey Pines it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. New Zealand’s Ryan Fox, one of four players who have participated in all three Olympic men’s golf competitions, plays a power game that’s perfect for Le Golf National.

Austria’s Sepp Straka has missed just one cut since April on Tour and England’s Matthew Fitzpatrick has been equally consistent. But it’s Guido Migliozzi, who won the French Open at Le Golf National in 2022, who fits the mold set by Sabbatini in 2021 at No. 131 in the world following the Italian’s victory last month at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour and a solid week at The Open.

Others to watch in this category are Wyndham Clark from the United States; Poland’s Adrian Meronk; South Korea’s Byeong Hun An; South Africa’s Erik van Rooyen and Christiaan Bezuidenhout; Australia’s Jason Day and Min Woo Lee; Canada’s Corey Conners and Nick Taylor; Denmark’s Nicolai Hojgaard and Thorbjorn Olesen; Belgium’s Thomas Detry; Mexico’s Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz; Chile’s Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira; Finland’s Sami Valimaki; France’s Viktor Perez; Germany’s Stephan Jaeger and Matti Schmid; Norway’s Viktor Hovland; Sweden’s Alex Noren; Spain’s David Puig; and India’s Shubhankar Sharma.

Again, with Sabbatini as the ultimate guide, there are players in this week’s field that don’t have the pedigree that we see each week on the Tour, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t find Olympic glory.

Atop this list would be Chinese Taipei’s C.T. Pan – who won a playoff over McIlroy, among others, in Tokyo to claim the bronze medal three years ago. In his last eight starts he has four missed cuts, a withdrawal and two finishes outside the top 30, but also a runner-up showing at the John Deere Classic.

Paraguay’s Fabrizio Zanotti joins Fox, Gavin Green from Malaysia and Pan as the only three-time Olympic male golfers, and Columbia’s Camilo Villegas is the oldest player in the field at 42 after skipping his chance to play in the 2016 Games in Rio.

Also in this category would be Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo and Alejandro Tosti; Finland’s Tapio Pulkkanen; Italy’s Matteo Manassero; Japan’s Keita Nakajima; New Zealand’s Daniel Hillier; Norway’s Kris Ventura; Paraguay’s Fabrizio Zanotti; Puerto Rico’s Rafael Campos; Switzerland’s Joel Girrbach; Thailand’s Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Phachara Khongwatmai; Belgium’s Adrien Dumont de Chassart; India’s Gaganjeet Bhullar; China’s Zecheng Dou and Carl Yuan; Chinese Taipei’s Kevin Yu; and Columbia’s Nico Echavarria.