The Olympic men’s golf competition begins Thursday at Le Golf National in Paris.
The 72-hole, stroke-play tournament will feature 60 players, including four Americans – Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark. None of the U.S. players have logged a tournament round at Le Golf National, though there are several players who have experience via the DP World Tour’s French Open, including past champions Tommy Fleetwood (England), Alex Noren (Sweden) and Guido Migliozzi (Italy). Five European Ryder Cuppers from 2018 – Fleetwood, Noren, Rory McIlroy (Ireland), Jon Rahm (Spain) and Thorbjorn Olesen (Denmark) – are in this Olympic field.
Le Golf National is far from a bomber’s paradise, demanding precision off the tee with punishing rough and plenty of water, so it’s no surprise that Scheffler, Schauffele and Morikawa account for three of the five lowest odds to win.
Here is a power ranking of the top 25 players teeing it up in hopes of winning gold in Paris:
Who are the favorites to win gold?
1. Collin Morikawa, U.S.: He’s not finished worse than T-23 in 11 starts, a run that’s included five top-4s. Though he’s not played Le Golf National, his profile fits this course very nicely – and he’s already on site, beginning practice on Saturday.
2. Shane Lowry, Ireland: Throw out Saturday at Troon; he’s trending nicely and enters Paris coming off back-to-back top-10s. Accurate driver and great iron player, and he was T-16 in his last trip to Le Golf National in 2018.
3. Xander Schauffele, U.S.: A two-time major winner this season and the reigning gold medalist, Schauffele has an argument to be ranked at the top here. If the driving prowess that he displayed at Troon continues, he contends. If it doesn’t, like at the Scottish, where he was strokes-gained even, he probably just misses the podium.
4. Jon Rahm, Spain: He posted back-to-back top-10s at Le Golf National a few years ago before making his Ryder Cup debut there in 2018. And he shook off some recent major struggles with a balanced performance at The Open en route to a T-7 and a win this past week at the LIV Golf event in London.
5. Scottie Scheffler, U.S.: The world No. 1 added yet another top-10 with his T-7 at The Open. The only concern is the putter, which is starting to revert to where it was this time last year with two out of Scheffler’s last three starts in the negative in terms of strokes gained.
Who also have good shots at a medal?
6. Alex Noren, Sweden: In addition to 30 career rounds and a 2018 win at Le Golf National, Noren also went 2-1 at the 2018 Ryder Cup. He’s also coming off a T-13 at The Open, where he had his best week of the year in terms of driving accuracy.
7. Rory McIlroy, Ireland: His eight career rounds at Le Golf National were a while ago, though statistically, he’s this course’s best horse with at least eight rounds played. That said, the iron play was atrocious at Troon, where he missed the cut. He’s just not quite right to count on for a medal, but he’ll top-10 as the approach play is bound for some kind of correction.
8. Corey Conners, Canada: A gifted tee-to-green talent, Conners fell victim to the weather Saturday at Troon, yet he still managed a T-25 finish, his ninth straight inside the top 30. He’s fourth in Tour in strokes gained: approach.
9. Ludvig Åberg, Sweden: The ball-striking numbers are a tad down of late, but it was the putter that cost him the weekend at Troon. The Swede should feel more at home at Le Golf National; he won and tied for fourth in his two DPWT starts on continental Europe last summer.
10. Tom Kim, South Korea: Credit to Kim for coming over to France last year to play. He tied for sixth in his French Open debut, so he’s got good experience. He’s typically straight off the tee, though at Troon he had his worst strokes-gained performance since early April at the Valero.
Who can contend at Le Golf National?
11. Tommy Fleetwood, Great Britain: A French Open champion in 2017, though he’s not been back since a missed cut in 2018. Also has cooled slightly since a strong start to the summer, snapping his run of six straight T-26s or better with a T-34 at the Scottish and an MC at The Open.
12. Hideki Matsuyama, Japan: He’s been quiet, but that Tour-best short game could come in handy.
13. Sepp Straka, Austria: Encouraging week at Troon, where he was positive in every facet and ended up T-22. Find fairways, hit it close; that’s how Straka makes his money.
14. Joaquin Niemann, Chile: Disregard his T-58 at Troon; this type of setup is more up his alley. Fairly accurate with length, strong iron play and a sneaky short game.
15. Thomas Detry, Belgium: Has been steady this summer with a hot putter. Plus, he owns a T-8 and a T-16 at Le Golf National since 2018.
16. Matthew Fitzpatrick, Great Britain: Just one top-10 since before the Masters, though the driver and putter have still been there. He was T-27 last time at Le Golf National, in 2018.
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, South Africa: He had a terrible links fortnight – WD at the Scottish and MC at The Open. But he still drove it well, and his combo of driving accuracy, short game and putting will keep him in the conversation on a course where length isn’t everything.
18. Viktor Hovland, Norway: He just can’t quite get it back, and the chipping continues to sap any gains he makes elsewhere. The third at the PGA is beginning to look more and more like an aberration. Though there is hope as Hovland returns to non-links European golf.
19. Guido Migliozzi, Italy: Won the French Open two years ago, captured the KLM Open in late June and has regained some momentum after two straight MCs with a T-31 at Troon.
20. Shubhankar Sharma, India: Trending after a T-5 at the Italian Open and a T-19 at The Open. Not long, but straight and can make putts.
Who could be this year's surprise?
21. Jason Day, Australia: Notched his best finish since Wells Fargo with a T-13 at Troon. Putting and short game have been as good as usual, and the iron play at The Open was the best it’s been since Pebble.
22. Matteo Manassero, Italy: He’s been having a resurgence of late with three top-15s in his last five starts and a T-31 at Troon. The iron play has been great; he just needs to make a few putts to be a serious contender for a medal.
23. Victor Perez, France: He’s sandwiched a couple top-30s with MCs at Le Golf National, and of late, he’s been up and down with three top-12s in his last six starts but also MCs at both Opens. Good out of the rough.
24. Abraham Ancer, Mexico: LIV’s leader in fairways hit, though he’s not cracked the top 10 in his last three starts on the tour. Finished T-58 at The Open.
25. Thorbjorn Olesen, Denmark: Was T-3 at Le Golf National in 2017 and has gone T-20, T-10 the last two years. But this is purely a course-history play as Olesen hasn’t posted a top-10 since winning the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in January – and it’s been the ball-striking that’s caused him issue.