Tournament soccer is funny: You can have all the big-name talent you want but that doesn't mean good performances will follow, and small sample sizes have seized a nebulous word at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Momentum.

NBCOlympics.com's Nick Mendola and Leo Santos have been watching every minute of the men's and women's soccer in France, and are here to analyze results, performances, vibes and the upcoming knockout rounds to give a forecast of who has the best chance to win gold, silver and bronze in Paris.

8. Paraguay

Nick's ranking: 8 — Bounced back from a brutal five-goal loss to Japan in the opener, but have a lot to prove as the second-place team from what turned out to be the shallowest group.
Leo's ranking: 7 — Paraguay has seemed to click after that mentioned loss. Julio Enciso is getting on the scoresheet and Inter Miami's Diego Gomez is dominating the midfield. This team plays entertaining offense, including Marcelo Fernandez's goal-of-the-tournament contender against Mali. I wouldn't be surprised if the South Americans get a result against Egypt. 

7. Morocco

Nick's ranking: 7 — Only Spain averaged more possession and no one consistently produced more dangerous chances than Morocco. The tournament's top goalscorer, Soufiane Rahimi, has been in the right place to feast on chances created by Achraf Hakimi and Co.
Leo's ranking: 6 — Morocco is the dark horse of the tournament so far. It deserved the win against Argentina, and Rahimi and Hakimi seem to be having fun. They are lethal in the attack (six goals in three games) and its two best players can honestly take this team far in the tournament — and Morocco may have the second largest fanbase in Paris to get them to that level. 

Soufiane Rahimi (left) Morocco celebrates scoring his team's first goal with teammate Achraf Hakimi (right) during a group stage match against Argentina at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Getty Images

6. USA

Nick's ranking: 6 — Wild to say about an American team but they have so many different attackers who bring different dimensions to an opposing back line. Walker Zimmerman and Miles Robinson at the back allow the midfield to take chances going forward.
Leo's ranking: 5 — The U.S. bounced back after that France thrashing, but I'm still on the fence for this young team. They are solid at the back and are fast up front, but striker Duncan McGuire has not scored a goal yet, and this team tends to struggle when they face a physical team that owns possession.

Team USA's Kevin Paredes celebrates after scoring a goal in a men's soccer group play match at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.

(USA Today)

5. Egypt

Nick's ranking: 5 — They fight to reclaim the ball with vigor and aren't arrogant enough to neglect a long clearance when necessary. Attack with vicious intent.
Leo's ranking: 8 — Former Arsenal player Mohammed Elneny is the engine in the midfield, and Egypt is playing fundamental, composed soccer. So far it has worked, but I'm not sure it can last long enough. 

Adel Ibrahim #10 of Team Egypt celebrates with teammates after scoring his team's first goal during the Men's group C match between Spain and Egypt during the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux on July 30, 2024 in Bordeaux, France.

(Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)

4. Spain

Nick's ranking: 4 — Pau Cubarsi has been excellent at center back, especially in possession, but conceding in all three games sets off an alarm or two.
Leo's ranking: 3 — Spain blew its chance of topping Group C on the final day. The bigger picture to me in that match showed that Spain might not be capable of clawing its way out of a hole if they concede a goal or two early in a match. 

3. Japan

Nick's ranking: 2 — The group draw was kind to them but that ends with Spain in the quarterfinals. Zero goals conceded and the second most touches in the opposition box shows a well-organized team executing a winning philosophy.
Leo's ranking: 4 — Japan is electric and has dangerous counterattacking play. It will let opponents have the ball, but it doesn't phase, nor should the opposition let that fool them. Japan attacks with numbers and they transition fast — and that's a recipe for making it far in the tournament. 

2. Argentina

Nick's ranking: 3 — It was nice to see the clean sheet against Ukraine after allowing goals to Iraq and Morocco.
Leo's ranking: 2 — Julian Alvarez needs to be the man in every match for Argentina to win gold. When he has performed in the group stage, Argentina easily look the best team in the tournament.  

1. France

Nick's ranking: 1 — The hosts' advantage is less about home soil and more about the caliber of their overage players. Loic Bade has been spectacular at the back, and Alexandre Lacazette and Jean-Philippe Mateta together bring experience and wisdom to challenge any u-23 back line.
Leo's ranking: 1 — Lacazette, Mateta and Michael Olise. That's all that needs to be said.